Tournament Field to be Announced Monday
5/27/2013 12:06:00 AM | Baseball
The Bearkats know all too well about the patience necessary to follow conference tournament games online, track their RPI and then hope to hear good news when the 64-team NCAA tournament field is announced on ESPNU Monday at 11 a.m.
Sam Houston State went through all of that a year ago after going 2-2 in the 2012 Southland Conference Baseball Tournament. After seeing nearly all of the 34 at-large spots go to other teams in last year's selection show, the Bearkats were awarded their first at-large selection in school history and earned a trip to Houston for the regional round at Rice.
After winning a second straight regular-season Southland Conference championship but also falling short in the conference tournament, the Kats have their fingers crossed that history repeats itself.
There are several factors that go into consideration for an at-large spot, including a team's regular-season campaign, RPI number and how it fared against comparable competition.
Here's a closer look at how the Bearkats did with a few of the factors the selection committee looks at in regards to at-large teams and where teams may be slotted on the tournament bracket.
Conference campaign
Despite finishing 1-2 in the conference tournament, what the Bearkats can hang their hats on is that they won the regular-season championship. With three conference series left, there was a bottleneck at the top of the Southland standings with the first-place and the seventh-place team separated by two games.
Sam Houston State won eight of the final nine conference games, including a series sweep over Central Arkansas and a series victory over Southeastern Louisiana, teams that met in Saturday's Southland Conference Tournament championship game.
“I think they're weighing a lot more on the league champion now,” said Bearkats coach David Pierce following his squad's elimination from the conference tournament last Friday afternoon. “Our resume is very good. We should be in the top 45 or the top 50, depending on what happens in the rest of the country. I think we've got a great shot at it. I hope so.”
Twelve teams from mid-major leagues earned at-large spots in the NCAA tournament in 2012. Of those, seven (Southern Conference's College of Charleston and Appalachian State, TCU of the Mountain West Conference, New Mexico State from the Western Athletic Conference, Indiana State of the Missouri Valley Conference, Rice out of Conference USA and Sam Houston State) won its league's respective regular-season championship.
The remaining five were San Diego (runner-up in the West Coast Conference), Missouri State (second-place finisher in the Missouri Valley), Central Florida (second place in Conference USA) as well as Dallas Baptist, which was independent from conferences and East Carolina, which finished sixth in Conference USA.
RPI ratings
A tool the selection committee uses to select national seeds, regional hosts and at-large teams is the RPI (ratings performance index). The RPI a number that ranks teams based upon win-loss record and strength of schedule. A team's winning percentage makes up 25 percent of the formula with its opponents' winning percentage accounting for 50 percent and the final 25 percent comes from the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents.
In baseball, victories on the road are valued at 1.3 apiece, while wins at home count as 0.7. Conversely, each home loss counts 1.3 and each road loss will count 0.7 against a team's RPI.
Typically, in order to earn one of the at-large spots, a team needs to be positioned among the top 50 teams in Division I.
Before the Southland Conference tournament began, the Bearkats' RPI was 40, according to Warrennolan.com. Beating McNeese State (RPI of 206) was a big boost as losing to the Cowboys would've dropped the Bearkats significantly. After back-to-back losses to Southeastern Louisiana (RPI of 53) and Lamar (RPI of 77) dropped the Bearkats from 39 to 48 (46 according to Boydsworld.com).
Last year, the Bearkats finished the conference tournament with an RPI of 49. In the 2012 regionals, the Kats had a strong performance in the Houston Regional, nearly beating eventual national semifinalist Arkansas and eliminating host Rice, which may prove beneficial for being selected as an at-large team this year.
Strength of schedule
Another big factor that the committee looks at is a team's strength of schedule. Purposely, the Bearkats went out and put together a tougher schedule. With teams like Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor, Rice and Houston, Sam Houston State wanted to see how it would fare against those programs while also knowing that it would make its strength of schedule that much better.
Against those in-state teams, the Bearkats were 6-3 with four wins on the road.
Texas (27-24 record, RPI of 75), Baylor (27-28 with RPI of 80) and Houston (36-21 with RPI of 67) didn't fare well in conference action, but those teams contributed to Sam Houston State's strength of schedule ranking of 85.
Of the 14 teams from mid-major conferences with a higher RPI, only Cal State Fullerton, South Alabama, Louisiana-Lafayette, Florida Atlantic, UNC-Wilmington, William & Mary and Coastal Carolina had a tougher strength of schedule.
Conference tournament play
Like it or not, the last impression a team leaves can often determine whether a team plays in the NCAA tournament or stays home.
Along with their regular-season championship, strong RPI and tough strength of schedule, the Kats could have done themselves a big favor had they won their game against Lamar last Friday afternoon. That would have given them two wins in the conference tournament, which would have equaled their win total from the 2012 Southland tournament and also strengthened their RPI. Being nearly no-hit against Lamar in Friday's elimination game may not bode well for the Kats' tourney chances.
However, the Bearkats aren't the only team to win their league's regular-season title and come up short in the conference tournament.
Mercer went 1-2 in the Atlantic Sun tournament. UNC-Wilmington was eliminated in two games in the Colonial Athletic Association tournament. In the Mid-American Conference tournament, league champion Kent State went 2-2 and was knocked out in the semifinals. In the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference, Delaware State, which won the regular-season title by four games went 0-2 in the conference tournament. Tennessee Tech went 1-2 in the Ohio Valley Conference tournament. Holy Cross lost in the finals to Army in the Patriot Championships. Western Carolina was eliminated in three games from the Southern Conference tournament. Cal State Bakersfield finished 2-1 in pool play the Western Athletic Conference tournament, but fell short of the title round. In the West Coast Conference tournament, Gonzaga was eliminated in two games.
Conference strength
How a league stands compared to others around the country can also determine if conferences will have more than one team in the NCAA tournament or how many teams a strong league can get into the tournament.
The Southland Conference is ranked 11th according to the conference RPI and being a multi-bid conference for a second straight year is not out of picture.
The Southland is ranked just behind the Colonial, Big East and Conference USA. Ranked 11th out of 31 leagues, the chances are high that the Southland will be a multi-bid league, while others further down the list are more likely to be just one-bid conferences.
Latest projections
With all of the conference tournaments and the 30 automatic bids determined, the NCAA Tournament picture is coming into focus.
The Bearkats have reason to sweat a little considering that leagues which would not have been considered multi-bid conferences will be likely that due to upsets in the conference tournament.
Mercer was upset in the Atlantic Sun tournament as was Louisville and Seton Hall in the Big East, both Coastal Carolina and Campbell in the Big South, UNC-Wilmington and William & Mary in the Colonial, Creighton in the Missouri Valley, Western Carolina in the Southern Conference as well as Sam Houston State.
The Bearkats entered Sunday knowing that they were going to need some help. Sam Houston State needed Indiana to beat Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, Rice over Southern Mississippi in the Conference USA championship game, Oklahoma to best Kansas in the Big 12 and New Mexico to beat San Diego State for the Mountain West title.
The Kats got three out of four results with the Sooners winning 7-2, Indiana winning 5-4 with a walk-off single and also Rice winning in extra-innings. On the other hand, San Diego State defeated New Mexico 9-4 to take an at-large bid away from bubble teams like Sam Houston State.
Currently, there are probably between six and eight at-large bids up for grabs. The bubble teams in the running for those, which will be accompanied by overall record and RPI number in parentheses, are Sam Houston State (37-20, No. 48), Coastal Carolina (37-21, No. 46), Seton Hall (37-19, No. 44), Florida (29-28, No. 34), William & Mary (37-22, No. 45), Oklahoma State (38-17, No. 52), Western Carolina (39-20, No. 56), Houston (36-22, No. 67), Texas A&M (32-27, No. 33), Auburn (33-23, No. 39), San Francisco (32-22, No. 51), Ohio State (35-23, No. 64), UC Santa Barbara (34-23, No. 55), UC Irvine (33-22, No. 81), Michigan State (33-17, No. 43), North Florida (40-18, No. 58), Arizona (34-21, No. 58), Stanford (32-22, No. 65) and Pittsburgh (42-17, No. 60).
Even with the early exit from the Southland tournament, several online college baseball publications believe the Bearkats have done enough to get into the NCAA tournament.
According to BaseballAmerica.com's Aaron Fitt, Sam Houston State is safely into the tournament field, compared to Southern Conference outright regular-season champion Western Carolina.
“Sam Houston State and Western Carolina were both eliminated from their conference tournaments Friday, but we are projecting both teams to earn at-large bids, making the Southland and Southern two-bid leagues,” Fitt writes. “Sam Houston is a safer bet than WCU thanks to a slightly better RPI and better records against the top 50 (3-1 vs. 0-3) and top 100 (15-11 vs. 10-10). But for now we'll keep the Catamounts in on the strength of their SoCon regular-season title and an RPI close to the top 50.”
In his final projection, Fitt has Sam Houston State in the Baton Rouge Regional, the host of No. 3 national seed LSU, as the No. 3 seed, pitted against No. 2 seed Louisiana-Lafayette. The No. 4 seed would be Jackson State.
Kendall Rogers from Perfectgame.org also likes the Kats' chances of getting an at-large bid.
“Sam Houston State dropped a tough 3-1 decision to Lamar on Friday, getting eliminated from the tournament in the process,” Rogers said. “The Bearkats likely will still make the field of 64 with an RPI of 47 and 3-1 mark vs. RPI Top 50.”
SEBaseball.com also listed their projection of what the tournament field will look like. Mark Etheridge lists Sam Houston State as the No. 3 seed in the Baton Rouge Regional and will face Louisiana-Lafayette in the first game of the regional, hosted by No. 3 national seed LSU.
Craig Amick of ChasingOmaha.com projects Sam Houston State to be a No. 3 seed in the Manhattan (Kansas State) Regional. In that regional, Kansas State would be the No. 1 seed, Arkansas would be the No. 2 seed and Wichita State would be the No. 4 seed.
The time for projections and what-ifs is almost over and the Bearkats will find out soon enough if their resume is tournament-worthy.
“I think our whole resume with the teams we beat, I think we've got a pretty good chance,” Bearkats senior third baseman Kevin Miller said.
NCAA Tournament Regional sites
The 16 regional sites for the NCAA Tournament have been announced. If the Bearkats do earn one of 34 at-large bids, they'll be playing at one of the following locations.
• Baton Rouge, La.
• Blacksburg, Va.
• Bloomington, Ind.
• Chapel Hill, N.C.
• Charlottesville, Va.
• Columbia, S.C.
• Corvallis, Ore.
• Eugene, Ore.
• Fullerton, Calif.
• Los Angeles
• Louisville, Ky.
• Manhattan, Kan.
• Nashville, Tenn.
• Raleigh, N.C.
• Starkville, Miss.
• Tallahassee, Fla.
